Tributum Newsletter #15

Hello there

Phew, two months of lockdown done. While certain restrictions will remain, we will enjoy more freedom under Stage 3 as of 1 June 2020. Most of us will be able to go back to work (although working from home will remain a preferred option) and schools are set to reopen. We will get a better taste for what will be the “new normal”.

What I find interesting is that South Africans are normally so eager to compare us with Australasia, Europe, and the USA when it comes to justifying emigration, but very few of these comparisons are being done on lockdown. Let’s get some perspective – South Africa is not that unique – we are not alone.  

First, take a breath and log off social media. Then tune into Sky, BBC, CNN and Al Jazeera news channels on DSTV or go to their websites. Read or listen to their news, forget about the foreign names and accents, and you will soon realise that they have the same troubles and the same questions as us – was lockdown necessary, how will lockdown be eased, will the economy ever recover, must kids go back to school, where to get more PPE for health workers, officials breaking lockdown rules etc.  

Minister Tito Mboweni is scheduled to table a “Coronavirus” budget on 24 June 2020. Our lockdown started exactly a month after his initial 2020 budget address and little of that budget will remain true at this stage – COVID 19 became a reality and Moody already downgraded us. We are now in a recession, but again – we are not alone.  

SARS Commissioner Edward Kieswetter already said that tax revenues will drop significantly. Firstly, through the various COVID-19 relief measures backed by Government and secondly because tax collections will definitely be lower than budgeted. This is as much as a result from the controversial ban on liquor and cigarettes that will reduce sin taxes as it is due to the expected loss of corporate profits, VAT revenue and personal income tax. The next newsletter will address some of the main themes from the revised budget and I plan to hold a webinar in July to unpack it in more detail. Watch this space.

What is required now is a “window outlook” – looking outward as we move forward. Planning and strategising, but also implementation of the action required to get us where we need to be. The “mirror outlook” will not be that helpful. In this new normal our past will be of little assistance for predicting the future. The only reason you should look in the mirror is to see who must go into that future – you. Be the change you always wanted.