Tributum Newsletter #23

Hello

Welcome to 2021, and all the best. Hopefully you had a good festive season break and did not have to deal with too many IDIOTS as per Newsletter #22. A lot has changed in the almost 7 weeks since the previous newsletter.

Internationally there was a Brexit deal, and the USA has a new President. COVID second waves have led to stricter lockdowns in many parts of the world, while the COVID vaccine roll-out has already started…except in South Africa unfortunately. As a friend posted on LinkedIn this week – “Worldwide vaccinations completed 61 100 000, South Africa 0”…true, but scary.

If saving lives were of such importance surely getting in line early for the vaccination should have been the highest priority. Instead, a lot of time and effort was put into defending the tobacco ban. In the meantime, livelihoods continue to be lost. My daughter’s best friend did some waitressing over the festive season. Sunday 31 January 2021 is her last shift. Not because she does not want to work any longer, but because the restaurant is closing its doors…permanently. While she is still at school and gets supported by her family that is not true for many of the other employees, the permanent waiters, the cooking staff, the cleaning staff etc. Liquor giant SAB has also indicated that, because of the alcohol ban, it plans to end the contracts of 550 workers and stop R5bn investment earmarked for 2021.

Apart from the lost livelihoods these bans have a serious negative impact on tax collections due to the sin tax revenue lost by Treasury. So, while the general economy has done poorly and resulted in lower tax collections these bans have just increased the problem. While the empty beds at emergency wards on New Year’s Eve is testament that the alcohol ban played a positive role in creating hospital capacity, surely there comes a time when that ban must be lifted and I daresay that time was some weeks ago already. It also begs the question whether the problem is hospital capacity or a culture of alcohol abuse and violence – no ban will fix either problem, but that is a discussion for another time.

Vaccinations, calls for the R350 unemployment grant to continue, tourism sector stimulus package, the list of proposed Government expenditure goes on. These are new, additional costs that must be funded from an already empty Government purse and a very small direct taxpayer base.

All these additional costs and its funding will be discussed in the National Budget that is expected to be delivered late in February. The next newsletter will unpack that budget. I am too scared to make predictions…just in case they come true. One thing I am grateful for though is that I am not currently employed at Treasury. Until next time, stay safe.