Tributum Newsletter #71
Hello
Wow, 31 January 2025…only 11 months to go before we start again. Or is it? Why not start now, even if its 31 January 2025 and not 1 January? Is it just me but why do we feel like we have to start something “at the beginning” – 8am, or 2pm, or Monday or the 1st of the month? If the “leader of the free world” started his new tenure on 20 January 2025, why can’t we do the same? If you want to start doing something why not start doing it now, 1/12th into 2025.
It will be interesting to see how Trump’s progress as the 47th POTUS will stack up to his campaign. His views on US imports and tariffs, illegal immigration, DEI, the conflicts in Gaza and the Ukraine and Russia, among others, were quite divisive though it got him elected. Either way, it will make for entertaining viewing.
And we in South Africa must not think there will be no impact. If higher labour costs and tariff hikes increase inflation in the US, the Fed may have to raise its interest rates which will spell danger for our hopes of more interest rate reductions in the year. If the US economy grows and the US dollar strengthens the rand will be under pressure. Unfortunately, our economy is too small to impact that of others, but the US economy remains large enough to do so. While many of these factors are outside of our control, two things remain within the control of the GNU – (1) our policy and relationship with the US, and (2) how we manage our own economy.
The SA/US relationship will very much be dictated by our China and Russia relationships and how these countries relate to the US, and if they even do. Hopefully here the GNU will be guided by logic rather than feeling. By the time that the next newsletter is published we would have been subjected to the 2025 State of the Nation Address (SONA) and also the 2025 National Budget (Budget). These should also be dealing with things that are the GNU’s control.
But, very much like the question of whether Trump can implement his campaign views in the US the question will be whether the GNU can implement the SONA and Budget views. For the first time since 1994 we are dealing with a GNU and not just a ruling party. So hopefully some of the talk makes sense, and even better yet, some of it is actually done. Even though we will be some way into 2025 by the time it can be started. Only 2026 will be able to tell.
Here is to a good and joyful 2025. May you have plans and dreams and may they come true. Remember to take that first step, and the second, and then to keep up the momentum. Until next month, keep breathing.